Are We There Yet?

Category: Market Updates

134 posts categorized as "Market Updates"

Are We There Yet?

The market sits and waits for next week as the Fed meeting approaches. Will they or won’t they?

Is The Kitchen Still Open For Policy Support?

Rhetoric continues to indicate that policymakers are trying to serve up economic growth on a plate and convince the markets that the kitchen is still open.

Guessing Games Are Every Economist’s Cup of Tea

It seems that guessing games are every economist’s cup of tea these days.

Meet Me In The Middle

An analysis released this week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that middle income jobs (those paying between $30,000 and $60,000 per year) are finally being created.

Emerging Market Stocks Are Taking The Gold

…for the first time in a while.

The Bank of England cuts, Europe hovers, and the U.S. gets to work.

Is the divergence getting even greater? This week, the Bank of England (BoE) responded as expected with additional support after the Brexit vote in June weakened their economic stability.

We Need A Little More Pep In Our Economic Step!

The first release of estimates for second quarter economic growth was made in both the US and Euro-area, both to the disappointing side.

If You Miss A Day, You Can Miss A Lot

Every day this week had a top headline that is directly relevant to the market narrative at hand- some positive, some tragic.

Does It Count?

What would appear to be a “blowout” employment report in the US on Friday created a favorable environment for risk assets, but carried with it a footnote.

Don’t Delude Yourself

The story does not end here. After the tumult unleashed last Friday with the UK referendum indicating a desire to exit from the European Union, the financial markets experienced more gyrations.

“Should I Stay Or Should I Go Now?”

…. If I go there will be trouble, and if I stay it will be double.” The lyrics from this aptly named song “Should I Stay or Should I Go” released in 1982 by the English rock band The Clash might as well be the theme of the markets this week.

Twitter Can’t Pay For That Kind of Advertising

You know we are in a different media world when newspapers and television news channels alike are filling their content void with discussion on this week’s iconic tweets.

People Are People

We all know that people (and markets) tend to have short memories and, thus, repeat the mistakes of the past. But are we already back there again?

It’s Been A Crude Story This Week

Oil prices hit the $50 mark after almost doubling from near $27 per barrel earlier this year in February.

Boo! Yellen spooks the bond market

The US Fed spooked markets a bit this week when the minutes from their latest meeting suggested that perhaps June is on the table for the next Fed hike.

America has got gas. Lots of it.

According to the most recent U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas inventories were 49% higher than a year earlier and 47% higher than the previous five year (2011-2015) average.

Bland May Be Best, For Now.

Does the market think bland is best?

In With A Bang And Out With A Whimper

That is how the expectations for US economic activity went in the first quarter….again.

The two-edged sword swings back to Saudi Arabia

The proverbial sword cuts both ways.

What Is Right Is Not Always Popular

You can feel it around the world – people are mad.

Japan is Tankan, US employment looks good, and Saudis make headlines.

Confidence is “tanking” in Japan, The jobs report in the United States showed some good news, And the Saudis made headlines as Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a basic outline of strategy as the kingdom moves forward with an initial public offering (IPO) of Aramco.

Decisions, decisions

This week there were a host of decisions from the world’s central bankers.

Everything And The Kitchen Sink

That’s the only way to describe the ECB’s strategy in the decision this week to increase the amount of monetary support they are offering their economy.

We Live In A Nominal World

It is important to remember that we live in a nominal world. It is easy to forget that as the talk in economic circles focus on the “real” metrics, after adjusting for inflation.

What else have they got?

That is the question that continues to come up in our discussions with investors as we have talked about the chink in the armor of central banks’ after the recent Japan experience

There Is A Chink In The Armor

In a post-crisis world, central bankers have been the super heroes swooping in to snatch potential victims from an unseemly fate. However, recent market activity suggests that some are starting to question the “super” powers central bankers really have.

Some Food For Thought

Eyes turn toward another data point in the US this weekend: the Super Bowl. Notoriously superstitious, equity market traders look for every kind of insight imaginable to try to get an edge including this event.

It’s not all negative out there…

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a boost to the market’s animal spirits with an unanticipated cut to the deposit rate on excess cash held above required reserves to a negative interest rate.

First Week Of 2016 Is Full Of Macro Matters

Macro matters. That has been the case since the global financial crisis and the first week of 2016 sought to remind us of that fact. These first days of the year seemed an onslaught of information which heaped onto the pile of stress for financial markets.

Fed to Raise Rates in December?

Macro data this week further builds the case for the Fed to raise rates in the middle of December.

Is the carousel coming back around?

Here it comes again. The headlines of anti-austerity in the periphery of Europe are back in the newspapers.

Gift for US Savers in December?

Odds are higher that US savers get a little gift in December.

Let’s Make a Deal…

US politicians were this week’s contestants on Let’s Make a Deal…

The news is neither too good or too bad, but just right…for now.

Are we back to where the market wants newly released economic information to thread the needle between “too good” and “too bad”?

If you miss a day in these markets, you can miss a lot (of return)

Markets have bounced higher as we enter the final quarter of the year.

Where have all the good job gains gone?

After a wage report earlier this week that showed incomes in the US increasing 3.2% year-over-year, the jobs report released this morning was a bit more disappointing.

More Questions Than Answers This Week?

Boy, we wish the Fed would have gone ahead and raised rates. Instead we get to compound question on question.

Decisions, decisions

This week we received the last major data point before the Federal Reserve meets on September 16th to determine whether they will raise the Fed Funds rate for the first time in about 10 years.

Rock’em Sock’em Week

What is there to say when there is too much to talk about? Stock market gyrations are clearly the focus of the week and nearly overshadows much of the macro data points that were also announced…at least in the minds of traders.

Update on Global Equity Correction

It is during these times that we rely on our investment process and the work our team dedicates to studying risk, asset allocation, and corporate fundamentals.