Edge Capital Group Q1 2019 Outlook
Investor sentiment dissolved quickly during the fourth quarter, wiping out earlier 2018 gains and pushing global equity markets soundly into negative territory for the full year. In a year characterized by above 3% economic growth and 20% earnings growth, cash turned out to be the best-performing asset class. The negative shift in sentiment is the culmination of investor concerns over the length of the cycle, the future role of the Fed after a decade of easy policy, and the durability of corporate earnings as we transition to a late-cycle economy. Our view is that conditions will be more challenged over the next two to three years, but that it is still too early to make the recession call on the US economy. It would be incredibly unusual for the current backdrop, which includes benign inflation, robust economic growth, low interest rates, and a healthy US consumer, to unravel in less than a year and tip the US economy over. Our base case remains for slower economic growth in 2019, albeit positive, as we believe there is enough momentum in the consumer and corporate sectors of the economy.